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Increasing apprehensions exist about the possibility of armed conflict among Horn of Africa countries, the Ethiopian government and the Eritrean government, as aggressive rhetoric has intensified in the past few weeks.

What Has Ethiopia Stated?

Ethiopia's, being landlocked, calls for access to the Red Sea through Eritrean territory has sparked a heated war of words.

Ethiopian Prime Minister first openly declared in 2023 that his country's maritime access was an existential matter, remarks that Eritrea ignored.

Diplomatic connections between the both governments have often been tense. Following a prolonged struggle for freedom, Eritrea, which has a long Red Sea coastline, officially seceded from Ethiopian rule in 1993, leaving it landlocked.

Subsequently, a border war started in which more than 100,000 people lost their lives.

Latest Comments from Ethiopian Government

Prime Minister Abiy and army chief Field Marshal Birhanu Jula have directly stated sovereignty of Eritrea's maritime facility of the port of Assab – some 60 km from the boundary - and hinted at the wish to capture it through military means.

In early September, Abiy said Ethiopia's "mistake" of losing access to the Red Sea as a due to Eritrea's separation would be "corrected tomorrow".

Ethiopia's ambassador to Kenya, former General Bacha Debele, said that Assab was "Ethiopia's wealth" and would be given back "through military action".

Eritrean Response to the Statements

Amid ongoing challenges from Ethiopian officials, Eritrea's reaction has been restricted to concise remarks on X from Communications Head the minister.

Officials have denied Ethiopia's push for sea access labeling it "dangerous" and a "harmful plan" of "expansionism" – a strategy of retaking previous domains.

Government spokespeople cautioned on recently that moves to justify "flagrant aggression" would have serious consequences for Ethiopia and its neighbouring countries and is a "boundary that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Defense Preparations on the Ground

There have been no reports of major military movements in the border areas between the neighboring states.

Nonetheless, in Ethiopia, government media has broadcast training completions of thousands of cadets at different defense facilities.

The leader of human resources department of the armed forces, General Hachalu, commented lately in an interview that the military was in a "secure situation" as "numerous of recruits" were entering service, which he said was "a message to our opponents".

Past Background of the Conflict

For over fifty years from the late 19th century, Eritrea was governed by Italian colonisers.

After Italy's defeat, it was then controlled by the British administration before becoming a associated territory of the Ethiopian empire.

But in the early 1960s the Ethiopian emperor ended this arrangement and Eritrea became completely integrated into Ethiopia.

A three-decade long internal conflict occurred, concluding with the government's loss in 1991. Autonomy was then approved by the population in a vote in 1993.

For a few years in the 1990s, there were positive ties between the governments in Addis Ababa and Asmara, but they clashed over the specific demarcation of their common border, leading to conflict in 1998.

Although this ended in a truce in 2000, it was incompletely executed, and the neighbors remained at odds.

This situation improved in 2018, when the Prime Minister made gestures to Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki. The two signed a announcement that the hostilities was over – a decision that won the Prime Minister the Nobel Peace Prize.

The two governments were then partners in the country's previous civil war in Tigray.

But ties have subsequently deteriorated anew.