A decade following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in academia but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two essays that aim for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the idea that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless official who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the opposing positions."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster should engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
