This Remarkable Scoring Streak Fuels Villa's Unlikely Title Charge

It was two months prior when Morgan Rogers stood on the pitch at Sunderland, appearing bewildered while his coach berated him for missing a pass in behind. Back then, as Villa failed to win in six, the question was if his performances were an indicator or the source of Villa's broader struggles.

“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”

A Touchline Reaction of Joy

In the latest match, though, the sideline response was much more joyous. When Rogers drilled in his brace-sealing goal to reclaim his side's advantage, Emery ripped off his winter coat, threw his arms wide and bellowed. Villa were on their way to a 10th successive win , after failing to win their initial half-dozen games, now sit only three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.

Are They Genuine Challengers?

It remains an exceptionally difficult proposition to address. Past precedent, a general sense of this institution, indicates otherwise. Furthermore, their performances haven't been completely commanding in many games, while the wins have stacked up.

Per the data, on just two occasions has the team had an xG significantly higher than the opposition. For a club which has strung together ten consecutive victories, the Villans appear curiously susceptible – yet currently the fine lines are falling their way.

The Winning Formula

The prevailing tactic seems to be to engage in a shootout with the opposition and wait for their talisman to save the day with a couple of clinical strikes. This was the case at Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and it happened versus the Red Devils.

Rogers' first goal originated from a brilliant finish, curled right inside the post from a wide position. The follow-up goal proved to be a slight scruffier version of goal number one as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.

“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”

A Predictable Yet Lethal Tool

How Long Can This Continue?

Common sense dictates no. During the latest victory, the opposition managed a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. The team has secured their last eight victories by the narrowest of margins. They’ve conceded in all except one of those matches.

A reversion to average may well be the biggest rival they will encounter over the coming weeks. Rogers, almost certainly, cannot maintain blasting the football into the net's top corner indefinitely.

A Case for Belief

Could it be a different scenario whereby, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Key players might still find their top level.

  • The main striker may begin to adding to his goal tally.
  • The attacking talent could transform into the player he was at Borussia Dortmund.
  • The injured centre-backs are set to return from injury, bolstering a sometimes shaky backline.

This could contain the seeds of a title challenge, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on one man.

Enjoying the Ride

Yet, this is a surprise. Few believed the team would sit in a Champions League place in December. And without a doubt earlier this season, no one envisioned Rogers now would be at the forefront of a title charge and appearing as a vital player for the national team.

This remarkable period must be cherished precisely because it appears so improbable. As Rogers positioned himself before the Villa faithful at the final whistle conducting the cheers, he appeared to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells are uncommon in the sport and must be appreciated.

Gregg Anderson
Gregg Anderson

A data scientist and tech writer passionate about AI ethics and emerging technologies, with over a decade of industry experience.