War-torn Burma Goes to the Polls in Broadly Condemned Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a vote widely dismissed as a sham, with key opposition groups dissolved, many of their leaders jailed and as much as half of the country unable to participate because of an ongoing civil war.

A Phased Ballot Amid War

The ruling junta is holding a staggered election nearly five years after it took control in a takeover, which sparked massive protests and escalated into a devastating conflict.

Observers say the junta, with China's support, is seeking to legitimise and consolidate its power as it looks for a way out of the devastating stalemate.

"The environment does not allow for the exercise of the rights of free speech, association or peaceful protest," UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk stated.

More than 200 people have been prosecuted for interfering with or opposing the polls under a new law which imposes severe punishments, including the death penalty.

Director Mike Tee, performer Kyaw Win Htut and comedian Ohn Daing were among the well-known individuals found guilty under the law, which was passed in July. They were each given a seven-year jail term after criticising a film promoting the elections.

Immense Challenges and Coercion

Civilians are "being coerced from all sides," Mr Türk said in a statement, pointing out that armed rebel groups have made warnings urging people to boycott the polls.

The military has been fighting on multiple battlefields, against both pro-democracy fighters who reject the coup, as well as ethnic armed organisations which have their own militias. It lost control of vast areas of the country in a string of defeats, but clawed back territory this year after relentless airstrikes enabled by support from Beijing and Moscow.

All of this and the fact that significant regions of the country are still under opposition control presents a huge logistical challenge for conducting an election.

A Restricted Poll

The ballot is set to take place in three rounds over the coming weeks in two hundred and seventy-four of the country's three hundred and thirty townships, with the remainder deemed too unstable. Results are expected around the end of January.

There is unlikely to be any voting in up to fifty percent of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, some districts will hold elections, making it challenging to forecast a possible turnout.

Six parties, including the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party, are running nominees nationwide, while dozens more parties and independent candidates will compete only at the local levels.

Some 40 parties, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which scored decisive wins in 2015 and 2020, have been banned. Suu Kyi and a number of the party's senior figures have been imprisoned under charges widely condemned as politically motivated, while the rest are in hiding abroad.

International Condemnation

"By splitting the vote into stages, the authorities can change their approach if the results in the first phase do not go their way," commented Htin Kyaw Aye, a spokesman of the watchdog group Spring Sprouts.

Nations in the West, including the United Kingdom and the European Parliament, have dismissed the vote as a pretence, while neighbouring group Asean has urged political dialogue to precede any election.

The Burmese junta has dismissed criticism of the polls, insisting that it aims to "restore a democracy with multiple parties".

"This vote is being held for our nation. It is being held for the people of this country. It is not being held for the international community," a military representative stated at a news conference last week.

Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing cautioned earlier this week that those who refuse to vote are rejecting "progress toward democracy".